Adobe predicts $189 billion U.S. online sales this Christmas

By Lauren Fruncillo November 1, 2020 - 3:00 pm

Santa’s going to need to offer some Christmas magic to couriers this year as adobe predicts U.S. online holiday sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 will total $189 billion, shattering all previous records with a 33% YoY increase.

Adobe has predicted that consumers could also be spending an additional $11 billion online if they receive more stimulus checks and physical stores need to shut down again.


  • Daily Records: Online sales will surpass $2 billion every day between Nov. 1-21 and increase to $3 billion a day Nov. 22–Dec 3.
  • Black Friday, Cyber Monday: Black Friday is projected to generate $10 billion in online sales, a 39% YoY increase; Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the year with $12.7 billion, a 35% jump YoY.
  • Smartphone Share: Americans will spend $28.1 billion more on their smartphones vs. 2019, accounting for 42% of all online sales, a 55% increase YoY.
  • Small vs. large retailers: Small retailers ($10M-$50M annual online revenue) will see a larger boost to revenue (107% boost) vs. large retailers (84% boost). More details below.
  • Most anticipated gifts/toys: Rainbocorns, Cutetitos, Little Live Pets, Star Wars toys and LEGO sets. Video games: Cyberpunk 2077, Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War, Spider-Man: Miles Morales, Mario Kart Home Circuit, Super Mario 3D All Stars. Game consoles: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X, Nintendo Switch.
  • New shoppers: Adobe expects 9% of all holiday customers to be net new online shoppers due to the pandemic, and conversion rates are expected to increase significantly (13%). The Average Order Value (AOV) is expected to stay flat YoY.
  • Election Week (Nov. 1-7) will total $16.3 billion in online sales. On the day after the election, online sales will grow 11% slower than the full week.

“As retailers adapt to consumers’ new behaviors in this pandemic, we expect earlier discounts, more shipping and pick-up options and uncertainty around in-store purchases to drive this year’s online holiday sales to record highs. This year is unlike any in the past, and for the first time we are no longer referring to peak holiday sales as Cyber Week – it’s now Cyber Month.”
– John Copeland, head of Marketing and Customer Insights, Adobe

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