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General Election Week is here at last!

By Chris Dawson December 9, 2019 - 1:00 pm

There have been so many elections, referendums and endless votes in Parliament over Brexit in recent times that you are totally forgiven if this week’s General Election, coming right in the middle of the peak selling season, isn’t top of your agenda. However, how you vote could change online trading dramatically in 2020.

Possible General Election Results

There are only three realistic outcomes from the General Election:

A Conservative Government

If the country votes for a Conservative Government, Boris Johnson will return as Prime Minister with the aim to push a transitional Brexit Deal through by the end of January and negotiate the final Brexit Deal by the end of 2020. The final date that at extension for negotiating the full trade deal with the EU would be June and Boris has already indicated he wouldn’t be requesting one – not really surprising with his mantra of ending ‘dither and delay’ and getting on with Brexit so that the country and Parliament can concentrate on more usual business such as running the country.

Likely ecommerce impacts would be customs forms and tariffs for trade with the EU, different tariffs with the rest of the world and customs paperwork when shipping to Northern Ireland and another set for shipping to the EU.

Another hung Parliament

None of the smaller parties, not even the Liberal Democrats are capable of winning a majority in this General Election, but they could all act as king makers. The chances are high, even if Boris had the first shot of forming a majority government as is his right as the incumbent Prime Minister, that none of the minor parties would prop up a Conservative Government. The Lib Dems tried this with Nick Clegg and it didn’t go so well for them, plus they are violently opposed to Brexit. The more recent Conservative suitors, the DUP hate the deal on offer.

Alternatively, if the Conservatives are unable to form a government there are plenty who might consider propping up Labour from the Greens to the SNP, and if Jeremy Corbyn goes maybe even the Lib Dems could stomach a Labour government. The price these parties would extract from Labour however would be high, including another Scottish Referendum.

A Labour Government

Labour are hovering around 30% in the polls with the Conservatives in the low 40%s, so there’s a big gap to close in just a few days. Polls in recent times have been disastrously wrong so it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Labour could surge.

If Labour get in then the uncertainty around Brexit will continue through 2020 with a promised attempt to negotiate a new deal within 3 months (something they claimed Boris had no chance of doing so perhaps they’re drawing lessons from the Conservatives on getting things done). They would then within a further 3 months put their renegotiated deal back to the country with yet another referendum hopeful that the country would vote remain, although Jeremy is staying neutral which he says gives him the ability to implement what the people say regardless of the result. Labour’s problem is that they have no one in the cabinet even vaguely in favour of negotiating a deal which they would then back – they’ve all said no matter how good a deal they’ll campaign for remain so any deal is likely to be unpalatable to just about everyone – probably what they’re hoping for in order to win a remain vote.

At the same time a Labour Government would implement a massive buy back of companies (Water, Rail, BT, Gas, Electric and the Royal Mail) with the promise of billions for the NHS, lower rail fares, free 100mg broadband for everyone and higher taxes but only if you earn more than £125k per year. That’s a lot of election bribes so also a lot to pay for and payments can only come from taxes either now or in the future whether on individuals or businesses.

Make sure you vote in the General Election on Thursday

So that’s the main three options, make sure you vote and this time around, unlike the last three years with the Brexit Referendum, if there’s one thing I’m hoping for it is that democracy will prevail and that means moving forward with the consent of the losers regardless of whether it’s Boris, Jeremy or someone else that turns up in No 10 next week.

  • SAM
    8 months ago

    Well I do not really want any of them. There never seems to be any common sense middle ground, we seem to have extreme capitalism and greed is good or essentially communism. None of it serves the people well.
    Plus in Scotland we just end up with basically another vote on independence as the most undemocratic of the lot Sturgeon will not accept any result that does not go her way, and come Friday whatever the result she will think she has a mandate for bleeding indyref2. Silly women will have us out the UK and EU both in the same year .
    We can only hope a better lot arrive on the scene in the near future than this shower of clowns.

  • 8 months ago

    @Sam Much like people do not respect the vote to leave the EU.

    I think once the UK have left the EU then the Scots have every right to have another Referendum, as the majority of Scotland voted Remain.

    Hopefully Boris will get back in with a majority, so he can control Parliament, with a possibility of putting No-Deal back on the table.

    A big No to Corbyn from me, but should it go that way then I think that we need a Government in control rather than a hung Parliament.

    And what happens if we do remain, we will continue to be the laughing stock of the EU and have lost any respect that they ever had for us as well as probably any privileged deals, like the rebate.

    What about all the people that voted to leave? How will they react if they are suddenly told we are to remain?

    • SAM
      8 months ago

      @tyler the majority of Scots also voted to remain in the UK also.
      We have had nearly 10 years of referendums hanging over us and we are sick and tired of it…it is like here we go again…

      Only Sturgeon could actually make Tories popular again in Scotland. She LOST 13 seats to Tories in 2017 it was her that kept the Tories in actual power, and nothing has changed since then…
      Don’t encourage the women and her lot there as mad as a bag of frogs and could not be trusted to run a bath never mind the country. Plus the UK breaking up would be a disaster for all parts of it not just Scotland.

      As you can tell I do not like wee Nicky.

      I voted to remain in the EU , but I also voted to remain part of the UK….some you win some you lose.

      I think the UK should leave the Eu ( think it is stupid move) but that was the vote and not implementing it will cause a lot more long term issues I agree.

    • james
      8 months ago

      @Sam

      Nicola Sturgeon is the best thing to happen to Scottish politics since devolution.
      Your “mad as a box of frogs…” nonsense isn’t really productive. It’s almost as if you’re holding up Boris Johnson as an example of sanity. what’s your alternative to Nicola then? reece-mogg?
      It’s not a personality contest. you don’t like her personality, get over it. look at some policies, at their track record, what they’ve actualy done, rather than the same old propaganda. it’s just so much small minded yawn.

    • 8 months ago

      @Sam, That’s a difficult one, how many Scots voted to stay in the UK as it was part of the EU?

      Would the Scottish Referendum had a different outcome if we had the Leave vote prior to the Scottish vote?

  • jim
    8 months ago

    boris should send cranky sturgeon a christmas card
    without the seats north of the border, labour will always struggle to gain a majority

    • james
      8 months ago

      it’s strange how the court of public opinion (read, people who can’t see past the tabloid lies) find these unbased accusations against Salmond, brought up 5 years after the fact, by “anonymous” parties who went to the papers and not the police, during a politically sensitive time to do most damage so massively substantial and noteworthy.

      Yet a Conservative MP getting drunk on taxpayer money in the commons bar, sexually assaulting numerous people in front of witnesses, and being dragged out by the police, that’s just not a thing worth mentioning.

      strange that, isn’t it? almost like there’s some kind of bias going on somewhere….

  • jim
    8 months ago

    the SNP have some awkward dung to avoid when alex salmond in the dock next year

  • SAM
    8 months ago

    @James

    Like Boris she is a populist. Half the laws they make up at Holyrood are a complete waste of time and money. Also she is spent that much time abusing the position off FM to pursue her neverdendumb she is not doing any good for anyone. I don’t fall for the spin either there is enough fool’s here doing that.
    I do not think their is any good alternatives either.
    She had her chance in 2014 and she lost….Once in a lifetime Fat Ecks words …let us get on with our life’s.

    • James
      8 months ago

      @Sam

      Strange to accuse someone in power of being a populist. Fair enough Boris has been there ten minutes, failed to actually wield any power, and is basically bribing the 1%. I’m finding a lot of the labour campaign promises to be rather populist and unachievable. But Nicola has been around a while now, putting promises into action, that’s not a bad thing, it’s just strange because we’re used to politicians lying all the time and taking back promises ten minutes after winning.

      Half the laws passed anywhere are going to be considered a waste of time by half the people (Westminster exceeding that ratio). But do you have some specific ones in mind? I don’t agree with all of them myself but on balance I think the SNP and Nicola have been doing a fantastic job.
      – oh and “I have no alternatives” is a lame cop out. Like watching the world cup and booing every team.

      Politics isn’t once in a lifetime. What’s with this selective allergy to voting I keep hearing? There’s yet another election on Thursday and that’s a good thing because democracy, but referendums are a bad thing because democracy. We can’t “live our lives” when we have to vote? If Boris wins a majority and decides elections are bad too are we just gonna play along with that? people are bored of voting so let’s be a dictatorship… rubbish argument.

      Neither referendum were legally binding or for a set period. Any decision made (politics or personal) is subject to material changes to the factors that decision was based on;
      Half the reason a lot of Scots voted to stay was because of scaremongering about Indy Scotland being kicked out the EU, and vows about how Scotland is an Equal Partner of Nations in a United Kingdom, then ten minutes later… Well you know the rest. It’s not a wee change its a massive bloody change and the case for another vote is strong whether you want one or not.

      I’ve genuinely had conversations with people and wanted to find out why they hate the SNP so much, and about the best reason they can give me is “Alex salmond is fat”. No joke. It’s not a valid argument. Not even close. And these kind of people think they’re informed.

      The double standards at work are so obvious I don’t know if people don’t want to see it, or already know and play along for some reason I don’t get.

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