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Today is not Brexit Day – Will a General Election resolve matters?

By Chris Dawson October 31, 2019 - 12:13 pm

Today is not Brexit Day, due to what Boris Johnson would describe as more dithering by Parliament and the Labour party, and what his opponents in the commons would describe as his headlong rush to get Brexit done on an unreasonable timetable and avoid proper scrutiny.

Regardless of who’s fault missing the promised Brexit Date is, we are now heading to a General Election on the 12th of December and the country gets to make a choice on who they want to take the country forward.

Jeremy Corbyn will try to move the conversation to non-Brexit issues, for many a blessed relief, but his popularity is low and the Labour Party with a confused Brexit position could bleed remain supporters to the Lib Dems and, almost unthinkable a few years ago, traditional leave Labour supporters could even vote Conservative.

Boris Johnson will be attacked for failing his “do or die in a ditch” Brexit deadline of today. It remains to be seen if votors forgive and blame yet another delay on Parliament and if the Conservatives also lose seats to the Lib Dems due to votors who wish to remain in the EU. Currently Boris appears to have annexed the Brexit Party, but they too could make a come back if the Conservative campaign doesn’t go well.

Polls are a dangerous thing to trust, polls in recent elections and referendums have been way off the mark but currently they’re putting the Conservatives in with a healthy lead.

YouGov poll for The Times

Survation Poll

CON: 36% (-)
LAB: 21% (-2)
LDEM: 18% (-)
BREX: 13% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-)
CON: 34% (+2)
LAB: 26% (+2)
LDEM: 19% (-2)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 1% (-1)

 
Whilst the Conservatives are currently ahead in the polls, it wouldn’t take much of a swing for the country to return another hung Parliament. It’s also not entirely outside the realms of possibility that the Lib Dems could steal enough seats to become the official opposition. With their very clear message of cancelling Article 50 on their first day on office they could appeal to votors from both the right and the left.

With around 60 MPs standing down at this election, some constituents will also have less clear choices with all candidates being unknowns, although some may have previously stood and lost.

The challenge for all parties will be to separate their Brexit Day message from their other campaign commitments. Conservatives will be clearly leave as soon as possible with Lid Dems occupying the opposite position of cancel Brexit and remain. Labour are still putting out confused message of negotiating a better deal, probably with a customs union, and then probably holding a referendum and campaigning against their own deal in favour of remaining. It’s fair to ask how voters can balance voting for a party that is aligned with the Brexit or no Brexit preference whilst at the same time considering other issues such as the NHS, housing, schools, police and generally running the country… which is high time politicians got back to doing.

If you’ve already decided how you will be voting then you’re probably well ahead of most of the country. If you’d like to take a guess at the result of the General Election, let us know in comments below.

Brexit Webinar

One thing is certain, if the Conservatives win a majority we’ll be leaving imminently with the deal Boris negotiated and a new Brexit Day date will be set, possibly seeing us out of the EU on New Year’s Day rather than the 31st of January.

The Boris deal will impact every online trader as, even if currently you only ship domestically, there will be customs paperwork required for many products destined for Northern Ireland. We are holding a Brexit Webinar with shipping experts GFS on the 20th of November, so make sure you attend to get a full update on how Brexit will affect you and what you need to know for trading internationally with the rest of the world in 2020.

  • SAM
    1 month ago

    Labour will do better than the press are saying. I know a lot of people who are fed up and tired of the Tories.
    Working conditions are terrible for millions, and wages shocking, YET the rich get richer, the country works for a few at the top and the economy is actually broken for the majority anyway.
    It is a straight fight between the SNP and Tories here and due to the person the SNP just put up I would give the tories a chance of actually saving that seat, the Tory Mp is actually involved with the community the issue is the English Tories down south the likes of Mogg we cannot stomach, where the guy the SNP have put up will only be interested on getting on chat shows just like the last time he was in before he got punted in 2017, so it is lose lose.
    Corbyn needs the seats here to combat the Tories Strongholds in the South and the guy still does not get it he will not win anything. He is also to extreme for many to stomach.
    The election is being fought on Brexit which is wrong as their is so much more at stake. I think we will end up with either a hung parliament again or years more of these awful Tories and living under the boot of their paymasters, and it will be the working man who will pay a dear price.

  • 1 month ago

    Corbyn may try to move the conversation to non-Brexit issues but without Brexit being concluded there is no way that Parliament can function properly.

    If Boris gets a majority, will he then go back to a No-Deal?

  • Mark
    1 month ago

    Labour will do very well because people forget.
    Corbyn told all those students he would scrap tuition fees at the last election and got their votes then when asked about it afterwards he said no he meant to say he would look into it and try to.

    To renationalise all the things he wants to will cost over £200 Billion but no worries he will do a Blair and borrow that. To put us back where we were when the Tories took over before which they then took great delight in moaning every day about austerity.

    All you see around the world is countries wanting freedom like us and yet Corbyn wants us back in the winter of discontent. Strikes go through the roof on nationalised businesses.

    The unions stay quiet till he wins.

    He will not win as many labour voters i know say no way they would put him in.
    He will just end up close run and leave us exactly where we are now a parliament that cannot make any decision on Brexit.
    Then you have the SNP destroying our parliament then they will break way what a joke let them go now and then have a general election.

    The EU have proven they need us so lets leave and then talk more with them.

    But lets actually get something done because if its a close election i want another and another etc just like the remainers and the SNP until the result is in my favour

  • 1 month ago

    I voted to stay so I will be voting for the Lib Dems although the reality is where I live the Tories could put anyone up as their candidate and they would win. I suspect the election won’t change anything and we will end up with either the Tories having a very small majority or maybe having to do a deal with the Brexit party or a hung parliament like we have at present but we shall see.

  • jim
    1 month ago

    SNP
    want to stay in Europe yet want, independence from the UK,
    we can only imagine the palaver of extracting Scotland from the union after 300 years, given whats happened with Brexit and the UK after only 40
    plus no chance of SPAIN agreeing to an independent Scotland in Europe,
    the Catalans would erupt,

  • jim
    1 month ago

    get real folks dont matter what happens hard brexit , soft brexit ,deal, no deal ,some deal ,any deal,
    were going to remain, in some form
    europes just next door

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