Last 10 days Brexit Flowchart
With under two weeks left to go until Article 50 expires and, if nothing intervenes, the UK leaves the EU on the 29th of March.We’ve put together a Brexit Flowchart laying out the possible outcomes.
It’s fair to say that the Brexit Flowchart demonstrates that the UK Government has lost all control of the Brexit process as we’re now firmly reliant on the remaining 27 EU countries to grant some sort of extension. If they don’t then the only possible two outcomes are a No Deal Brexit or the UK withdrawing Article 50 and remaining within the EU.
We are now in the territory which virtually every supplier to the ecommerce world has told Tamebay is the worst possible situation – prolonged uncertainty. Whilst very few people realistically wanted a no deal Brexit, even that some say would be preferable to a three month delay let alone a possible one or two year delay. It’s worth remembering once more that what the UK Government has been trying to arrange isn’t a Trade Deal with the EU – this is merely a transition deal with a Trade Deal to be negotiated over the next couple of years.
Our options now, with time running out, are for an extension to the Brexit process. The UK either needs a short technical delay of a couple of months, if Mrs May can rally enough votes in Parliament which will include getting the DUP on board in order to pass her deal (and she’s unlikely to put it to the Commons again unless she’s pretty certain of winning a third vote), or a long delay while we pretty much go back to the drawing board and start again.
The EU are keen for a deal but not a deal at any cost and so if we have a deal on the table a short extension is almost a given. What’s more doubtful is what a long extension would look like, what conditions the EU would attach and how much it will cost the country.
What’s more crippling is that, especially with a long delay of several years and still no certainty as to what deal if any would be put in place, businesses remain in limbo, unable to plan for the future and reluctant to invest. A deal is needed and for many at this stage, from both those who voted leave and those who voted remain, there’s a disbelief that after two years of negotiations Parliament has totally failed to come together and reach a consensus.
Too many politicians are fighting their own fiefdoms rather than come together and work towards a process with an outcome. Many MPs (about 500) voted remain but even they haven’t been able to vote in unison for an outcome that could be put to the EU. Just about everything has been voted down and the only thing they’ve been able to agree on is to prolong the uncertainty, nominally rule out a No Deal Brexit and to request some sort of extension from the EU. They’ve not been able to vote on a way forward to end the uncertainty.
Our Brexit Flowchart sets out the various routes that Brexit could go up to the 29th of March and what options this will leave the country after the EU summit depending if an extension is granted.
Clear as mud, just like current Government policy.
Complete stitch up,
Worse than the gulf war weapons of mass destruction debacle
I voted remain
Though a leave and negotiate tariffs from scratch with mickey mouse and Donald Duck I in charge would be so much better than this
Outrageous hypocrisy from the government
They witter about delivering the result of the referendum and honouring the vote
Yet refuse to accept the vote of parliament
Refusing this deal
They’ve forgotten that the referendum was a simple Leave or Remain. There was no referendum on a deal or no deal Brexit – just leave. It was down to Parliament to decide the terms.
– MPs are stupidly refusing to unite around anything. There has been no credible alternative put forward.
– The Government stupidly negotiated a deal with no cross party consensus and not even a Conservative (plus the DUP who they need to get anything passed) buy in.
– The EU stupidly insisted the UK trigger Article 50 before they would open negotiations.
The whole thing is a dogs dinner.
monumental fudge the cans not being kicked down the road, its been set into orbit
we need to leave simply to preserve our democracy, such as it is, we need a general election
though I have no idea who to trust or vote for
I didn’t hear anyone campaigning on a “simple leave” platform. Which politicians/ campaigners said we would “simply leave”(no deal)? That it is a dogs dinner was always inevitable.
I voted to remain as I benefited hugely in the 2000s from free movement (door always swung both ways). You could not get a more European and ROW family than ours…1990 all Scots, now we have Irish, German, Aussies,English and Spanish in the family.
I think we left for all the wrong reasons mainly immigration lets be honest. The real reason we have left is huge corporate greed , an economy built on low pay and poor working conditions , and I only think that will get worse with full Westmoreland control. People are paid well can feed their families who cares who is in control.
Something like Bojo wants a Kuwait economy that serves only his type.(who are the actual issue)….
However saying all that, it is slippery road to ignore the vote in 2016 and it is undemocratic to try and fudge it (most Politicians are bought and paid for). If the bought politicians try and ignore the vote it only will give voice to the far extreme types, with far worse consequences.
You then have to start a proper campaign to get back to the EU on its merits…but we must leave.
God bless Bercow
If it wasn’t so serious an issue I’d break out the popcorn and beer. I may yet do it anyway!
Although Bercow has rather mucked up my Flowchart….
There was always going to be this Impasse. When a party wins an election they make all the decisions about governing the UK for the duration. The losers do not have a say.
When the referendum chucked up a 48% stay, 52% leave, only the winners should have been in the negotiations from then onward.
Who in there right mind would have thought the Brexit process would be easy, when the remoaners would be allowed to have a say in negotiations.
Very easy for any opposition to scupper any negotiations, as they are all fighting their own agendas.
I voted Remain, but I am all for Democracy & fully accept the decision of the Referendum, and I am livid with the Politicians with their posturing and selfish stance, and not standing up for the Electorate in this process.
Who were “the winners”? Who should have been negotiating? Nigel Farage, who can’t even manage to get elected as an MP and Tim Martin? David Davis was negotiating and ran away. Rees Mogg has had the opportunity to vote a brexit deal through but declined. Oh but let’s blame the “remoaners” and the opposition. LOL
The whole joke is that no one had any idea of how Brexit would happen and what outcome was wanted. Now they are too arrogant to admit it. To admit what was said pre-referendum was mostly lies.
It all went wrong when the Tory’s voted in a remainer prime minister. They should have put someone like Gove, Raab etc in charge. Also Tory’s should have got tough on there remainer MP’s straight away. They should have got all there MP’s in a room and said from now on anyone who mentions a second vote, cancelling brexit etc will be deselected and if neccesary we will have another general election with leaver candidates replacing remainers.
The negotiations with the EU were conducted in the wrong way we were always on the back foot. They should have said to the EU we are preparing to leave without a deal but if you are interested in a deal then your welcome to come to London and discuss. There was absolutely no need for them to go rushing off to Brussels every few weeks with begging bowl in hand.
They say people don’t know what they voted for, absolute rubbish, of course they do. People want a trade only relationship with Europe and the ability to do trade deals with other countries. We can accept some of there rules on goods and services, but no free movement of people, and no european court of justice.
What needs to happen now is May needs to go, a brexiteer needs putting in charge and the clock resetting for 9 months while we prepare to leave without a deal and let the EU come to us if they are interested.
I’m guessing you’d be happy with leave without a deal on the 29th and let the EU decide if they’d like WTO rules or rustle up a quick trade deal to carry on selling us BMWs?
The UK is already ready to drop tarriffs to zero on most incoming goods 😮
I know a bunch of people who didn’t know what they were voting for. At least 2 of them (who had lived and worked abroad….!) voted leave as a protest vote. Another believed all of the rubbish spouted by the leave campaign. You know, the
‘Taking back control is a careful change, not a sudden step – we will negotiate the terms of a new deal before we start any legal process to leave’ bullsh*t.
We have a parliamentary democracy, not an absolute democracy. We don’t get to tell Parliament what to do.
Why is having another referendum somehow not democratic, but another general election is democratic? Sounds oxymoronic to me….
Absolutely right when you say “The negotiations with the EU were conducted in the wrong way”, people voted to leave or remain.
Once we had voted to leave then that is what we should of planned for, we were not in a position to negotiate a deal as has been found out, leave was leave without a deal, if there was a deal to be done it was the EU making a deal with the UK.
I am in favour of a trade deal, business is a business and it does not matter if that is conducted with a company abroad or in the UK terms need to be decided, they are the bigger players and hold the power to a deal, if they really want one.
Whilst some businesses in the UK will be fretting, for each one of those there is a counterpart on the opposite side of the “wall” who will be facing the same problems, just search “spanish farmers in fear of brexit” and not just farmers many other businesses around the EU that rely on trade with the UK.
Are the EU council not concerned about how it will effect those? I guess not…
It’s not the preferred option, i’d prefer a deal, but I believe it has to be one that respects the referendum result if it’s possible. Otherwise a no deal but i’m not sure they have done enough preparation to leave on March 29th.
As regards car manufacturers threatening to move production abroad. I would follow the Trump model 🙂 If they leave tell them we will stick import duty of 20% on any of there cars coming back inside the UK.
I think it said something like “The government will implement what you decide” on the leaflet that came through my door.
Not against another referendum but they should at least implement the result of the first one, then leave it 5 to 10 years and see whether the people are liking it before we have another.