Professor Matthew Goodwin on four possible outcomes of Brexit
Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent presented his keynote address ‘Brexit: Where are we now, why does it matter?’ at TDCGlobal (The Delivery Conference) yesterday in which he considered four possible outcomes of Brexit.
Current status and direction of Brexit negotiations
We are currently sat in the most critical week since the Brexit referendum because of some decision that will be taken today which will impact the direction of Brexit.
If you were a political gambler, you’d say that there are four outcomes for Brexit. The first one will rule out an option of no deal Brexit, forcing the executives to extend article 50 for a longer period. Matthew said that the probability of no deal Brexit has dropped from 10% to 5%.
Labour will table a Brexit deal today which they would more likely to lose. This will make Labour commit to the public vote and include Theresa May’s deal.
The third possibility is that all of these amendments will fail to get support as May has taken no deal off the table without the premise of the public vote and is unable to pass her second meaningful vote without the support of Labour who feels anxious about extending Article 50 or having a second referendum.
We will then see the pathway of no deal materialise at the end of March, said Matthew, which would lead to a public vote in 22 weeks later.
Brexit advise for merchants
One thing you can do is prepare and think about what does Brexit mean for your business, rather than listen to people who say that we’re coming to an era of the more predictable landscape because it isn’t true. He said that he would almost guarantee that we’re heading in an era where volatility would become a norm for businesses.
How are you preparing for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU and what strategies are you adopting despite the uncertainty of Brexit?
TORY BREXIT BETRAYAL – EU free movement of people, EU budget payments, no independent of EU trade deals, endless EU job-killing regulations, EU agricultural and fisheries policies, no EU representation. The Theresa May Brexit deal in all it’s glory.
LAB BREXIT BETRAYAL = 2nd Vote, 3rd Vote, etc etc…..