OECD ups economic forecast for 2016 but next year isn’t so good
The experts at the OECD have back tracked on their predictions of doom for the UK economy for 2016. They’ve changed their mind about a likely recession and upped their GDP growth forecast from 1.75 to 1.8%.
Mainly due to the slowing China economy, the OEC also downgraded global GDP expectations for this year from a forecast of 3% to to 2.9% so the UK is bucking the trend.
However all may not be rosy for the UK, the OECD have knocked the growth forecast for 2017 from 2% to 1% saying that the negative effects of the BREXIT vote haven’t vanished, they’ve simply been delayed.
The Chancellor Philip Hammond said “While I recognise that there may be some difficult times ahead, I am confident that we have the tools necessary to support the economy as we adjust to a new relationship with the EU and take advantage of the opportunities that it offers“.
I think it’s fair to say that even the most optimistic leave campaigners didn’t expect the UK economy to be quite as resilient in the short term as has been the case. Equally the doom mongers of the remain campaign can’t be totally dismissed… there’s likely to be plenty of uncertainty as BREXIT negotiations get under way which will impact the economy negatively over the next couple of years.
The ‘experts’ at the OECD spent 5 years during the financial crisis making predictions, they were rubbish. They published a review in 2014 confirming that they were rubbish, but they said “lessons have been learned about how we forecast”
Fast forward 2 years, still rubbish.
Absolutely no doubt another worldwide crisis is on the way but it will have bugger all to do with Brexit.
Any slight dip in the economy will have some sections of the media blaming Brexit, and then if their scaremongering adds to the woes, that will also be blamed on Brexit.
Nobody is discussing all those self-employed people who were inclined or encouraged to have a go at their own business a few years ago, but didn’t make enough to pay into a pension, although they soldiered on without claiming off the state……. those people are all coming up to retirement age, with many having zero pension plan.
They are all British and cannot be left to starve on the street, so who is going to pay for all of them – that is something I would like to see a government minister talking about.
Another problem for the economy is the arrival of many refugees, asylum seekers and so on, who will need masses of money spent on them over the next few years what with health problems, training for work etc. Perhaps the foreign aid budget will pay for now, but eventually they are going to be turned over to local authorities to support, whilst few will be able to contribute anything worthwhile for years to come, if ever.
Of course, the easy way out is to leave it to the next government and hope the brown stuff doesn’t hit the fan on their watch.
The OECD were amongst the ultra-doomongers in the run-up to the EU ref. Their track record seems poor, generally. Are they in the business of making predictions as to the future – or influencing it?