This is the first time i can remember that listings did not increase in response to ebay lowering its fees. So either the new ebay fees really do not lower users’ fees, as many sellers claim, or, the seller strike which started on Feb 18 and preceded and overlapped the permanent fee reduction had the effect of completely neutralizing the expected spike in listings. In either case, the data favors the claims of the ebay sellers, especially those sellers supporting the strike.

If this change to the fee structure was at all successful, it would have increased listings without a doubt. Therefore, the real interesting question is: how much more severe would the effects of the strike have been, had it not overlapped with the “fee reduction”?

Also, in analysing the graph we have to consider that even if every ebay user participated for one week in the strike by not listing any new items, there would still be auctions up every day during the strike. Why? Because at the first day of the strike the majority of auctions were listed prior to the strike and they expire according to their duration. This also supports the fact that the auctions counts started to decrease one day prior to the strike. Some sellers may have realized that in order to not have any 7 day auction up on Feb 18, they need to NOT list starting on Feb 11 and beyond. Others may have prefered to let their auctions expire during the strike and not relist until after the strike.

This week and next will be interesting. An increase of the auction counts over the next few days will be more evidence that the seller strike was successful. Of course, it will also be evidence that ebay’s fee reduction was successful in stimulating auction listing growth. If auction counts remain virtually unchanged until next week, then things will really get interesting

Same as ebay really. A bit Hollywood on the surface, but underneath a chilling current of unrest, fear and speculation. Mwoooooaahhhhhhh !!!!!!